Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-27; known on 2013-09-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-01.

  • JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2011-09-27
  • ZrCa   judged this prediction right on 2011-09-28.
  • ZrCa   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-09-28.
  • ZrCa estimated 99% on 2011-09-28
  • JoshuaZ said “Boxo, do you estimate a 99% chance that there will be a version of the proof in 2 years that is completed in enough detail that we can conclude it is definitely flawed? Tao has found where a problem probably exists, but without more details… on 2011-09-28
  • gwern estimated 80% on 2011-09-29
  • gwern said “terence tao already thinks it’s fundamentally flawed, and who am I to question the Tao…?on 2011-09-29
  • muflax estimated 75% on 2011-09-30
  • gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/7u2/edward_nelson_claims_proof_of_inconsistency_in/4xqa?context=3 nelson has ‘withdrawn’ his claim, saying tao’s criticism is ‘irreparable’.on 2011-10-01
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2011-10-01.
  • JoshuaZ said “Bwaha. Was way underconfident there. (I hope no one objects to my marking this right). on 2011-10-01

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction