Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-27; known on 2013-09-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-01.

• JoshuaZ estimated 75% on 2011-09-27
• ZrCa   judged this prediction right on 2011-09-28.
• ZrCa   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-09-28.
• ZrCa estimated 99% on 2011-09-28
• JoshuaZ said “Boxo, do you estimate a 99% chance that there will be a version of the proof in 2 years that is completed in enough detail that we can conclude it is definitely flawed? Tao has found where a problem probably exists, but without more details… ” on 2011-09-28
• gwern estimated 80% on 2011-09-29
• gwern said “terence tao already thinks it’s fundamentally flawed, and who am I to question the Tao…?” on 2011-09-29
• muflax estimated 75% on 2011-09-30
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/lw/7u2/edward_nelson_claims_proof_of_inconsistency_in/4xqa?context=3 nelson has ‘withdrawn’ his claim, saying tao’s criticism is ‘irreparable’.” on 2011-10-01
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction right on 2011-10-01.
• JoshuaZ said “Bwaha. Was way underconfident there. (I hope no one objects to my marking this right). ” on 2011-10-01