Venezuela will undergo sovereign default before 2016.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 55% on 2014-09-19
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2015-01-15
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2015-01-15
• gwern estimated 40% and said “a year is not a long time, and I’m sure they have a lot of legal and extralegal tactics to try. There must be more laws they can break to dig up money.” on 2015-01-15
• woodse estimated 25% on 2015-01-15
• jesselevine estimated 12% on 2015-04-28
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “No chance, Zhonghua has given them a loan. ” on 2015-05-17
• jesselevine estimated 6% on 2015-05-20
• RoryS estimated 35% on 2015-05-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “Updating on continued issues.Unlikely they’ll meet the October deadline. ” on 2015-06-03
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “Venezuela pays off 1 bln euro bondhttp://www.reuters.com/article/2015/03/17/venezuela-debt-idUSL2N0WI1O820150317” on 2015-07-07
• Raahul_Kumar said “China Extends $5 Billion Debt Lifeline to Venezuelahttps://tinyurl.com/osxd53x Debt default is ruled out this year, $5 billion covers all bond repayments.” on 2015-10-01
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% and said “http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-07/venezuela-bonds-rally-as-opposition-wins-majority-in-congress-ihw55afo” on 2015-12-17
• PseudonymousUser said “http://blogs.barrons.com/emergingmarketsdaily/2015/10/21/venezuela-can-repay-debt-through-q1-2016-barclays/” on 2015-12-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-17
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2015-12-17
• Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “I’ve already listed my reasons before, no need to repeat them.” on 2015-12-19
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 10% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 0% on 2015-12-26
• Raahul_Kumar   judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-02.