'Conrad Murray to be found guilty of involuntary manslaughter' [of Michael Jackson]

Created by gwern on 2011-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-08.

• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-10-03
• gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=752466 http://www.intrade.com/news/mainpage.jsp?article=news_709.html non-trading” on 2011-10-03
• Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-10-04
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 40% on 2011-10-06
• JoshuaZ estimated 38% on 2011-10-06
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 67% on 2011-10-10
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% and said “updating based on short news segment I saw while running at the gym” on 2011-10-17
• Sandra Åhlén   judged this prediction right on 2011-11-08.