GJP: '#1022 Will the South African government grant the Dalai Lama a visa before 7 October 2011?'

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-08.

• gwern estimated 30% on 2011-10-04
• gwern made the prediction on 2011-10-04
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-08.
• gwern said “denied: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/world/asia/dalai-lama-cancels-south-africa-visit.html?_r=1” on 2011-10-08
• gwern made the prediction on 2011-10-08