GJP: '#1022 Will the South African government grant the Dalai Lama a visa before 7 October 2011?'
- gwern estimated 30% on 2011-10-04
- gwern made the prediction on 2011-10-04
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-08.
- gwern said “denied: https://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/05/world/asia/dalai-lama-cancels-south-africa-visit.html?_r=1” on 2011-10-08
- gwern made the prediction on 2011-10-08
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