GJP: #1024 Will Abdoulaye Wade win re-election as President of Senegal?

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.

• gwern estimated 60% on 2011-10-04
• gwern made the prediction on 2011-12-14
• gwern said “run off, march 18: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Senegalese_presidential_election,_2012” on 2012-03-01
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-03-01” on 2012-03-01
• gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-03-20” on 2012-03-20
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-04-03.