GJP: #1027 Who will win the January 2012 Taiwan Presidential election? (Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT)
- gwern estimated 60% on 2011-10-04
- gwern said “as opposed to Tsai Ing-wen (DPP candidate) or ‘Neither’” on 2011-10-04
- gwern made the prediction on 2011-12-14
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2012-01-20.
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