LW: Goetz's mugging post will be <= -7 in 1 month.

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-04.

• gwern estimated 45% on 2011-10-04
• gwern said “http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/7×7/pascals_wager_reexamined/ & http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/7×7/pascals_wager_reexamined/4ydh” on 2011-10-04
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2011-10-04
• Robert Kosten estimated 50% on 2011-10-04
• gimpf estimated 50% on 2011-10-08
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2011-10-11
• gwern said “currently -11. marking as correct (that the karma will be lower than -7)” on 2011-11-04
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2011-11-04.