Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years.

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.

  • gwern estimated 65% on 2011-10-04
  • bobpage estimated 65% on 2011-10-04
  • realitygrill estimated 68% on 2011-10-04
  • JoshuaZ estimated 62% on 2011-10-04
  • Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-10-04
  • Anubhav estimated 60% on 2011-10-10
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% and said “What is meant by “published”? Does this mean available on Kindle/Nook store or posted anywhere online (in possibly incomplete form like his TDT paper)?on 2011-10-11
  • muflax estimated 50% on 2011-10-26
  • Grognor estimated 43% on 2011-12-06
  • bobpage estimated 85% on 2012-01-04
  • ahartell said “Does anyone have any information about how much of it he has done? Like a comment of his on lesswrong or something?on 2012-01-04
  • wallowinmaya estimated 67% on 2012-02-03
  • ahartell estimated 65% on 2012-02-04
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 55% on 2012-07-01
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 61% on 2012-10-13
  • Jayson Virissimo said “I wonder if his new sequence is a substitute or compliment for the rationality book.on 2012-10-14
  • chemotaxis101 said “To what extent and in what ways do you believe this question would influence your prediction?on 2012-10-14
  • Tuxedage estimated 65% on 2013-01-13
  • Michael Dickens estimated 55% on 2013-06-16
  • Vulture estimated 45% on 2014-01-20
  • estimated 20% on 2014-02-01
  • rebellionkid estimated 60% on 2014-06-16
  • Temeraire estimated 5% on 2014-06-17
  • aarongertler estimated 8% on 2014-06-17
  • rebellionkid estimated 6% and said “Note to self – make sure you typo less on this site.on 2014-06-23
  • TeMPOraL estimated 5% on 2014-08-14
  • Silver estimated 5% on 2014-08-30
  • scav estimated 30% and said “Look forward to reading it, not holding my breath for him to finish it.on 2014-09-14
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-10-04.
  • bobpage said ““What book?”on 2014-10-04

Please log in to respond to or judge prediction