Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years.
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.
- gwern estimated 65% on 2011-10-04
- PseudonymousUser estimated 65% on 2011-10-04
- realitygrill estimated 68% on 2011-10-04
- JoshuaZ estimated 62% on 2011-10-04
- Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-10-04
- Anubhav estimated 60% on 2011-10-10
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% and said “What is meant by “published”? Does this mean available on Kindle/Nook store or posted anywhere online (in possibly incomplete form like his TDT paper)?” on 2011-10-11
- muflax estimated 50% on 2011-10-26
- Grognor estimated 43% on 2011-12-06
- PseudonymousUser estimated 85% on 2012-01-04
- ahartell said “Does anyone have any information about how much of it he has done? Like a comment of his on lesswrong or something?” on 2012-01-04
- wallowinmaya estimated 67% on 2012-02-03
- ahartell estimated 65% on 2012-02-04
- chemotaxis101 estimated 55% on 2012-07-01
- Pablo estimated 61% on 2012-10-13
- Jayson Virissimo said “I wonder if his new sequence is a substitute or compliment for the rationality book.” on 2012-10-14
- chemotaxis101 said “To what extent and in what ways do you believe this question would influence your prediction?” on 2012-10-14
- Tuxedage estimated 65% on 2013-01-13
- Michael Dickens estimated 55% on 2013-06-16
- Vulture estimated 45% on 2014-01-20
- estimated 20% on 2014-02-01
- rebellionkid estimated 60% on 2014-06-16
- Temeraire estimated 5% on 2014-06-17
- aarongertler estimated 8% on 2014-06-17
- rebellionkid estimated 6% and said “Note to self – make sure you typo less on this site.” on 2014-06-23
- TeMPOraL estimated 5% on 2014-08-14
- Silver estimated 5% on 2014-08-30
- scav estimated 30% and said “Look forward to reading it, not holding my breath for him to finish it.” on 2014-09-14
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2014-10-04.
- PseudonymousUser said ““What book?”” on 2014-10-04