When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin.

Created by roxton on 2011-10-05; known on 2021-01-01

  • roxton estimated 45% on 2011-10-05
  • gwern estimated 40% and said “the dead Maru, specifically? that seems rather morbid a thing to do.on 2011-10-05
  • JoshuaZ said “What caused this to be a located hypothesis? on 2011-10-05
  • roxton said “It’s a morbid thing to do, and a morbid prediction to make. However, the owner has started posting unusual videos. Long shots of Maru doing nothing. Extended close-ups. And viewership is still high.on 2011-10-05
  • roxton said “I think there exists an expectation of shared ownership between the owner and the Maru-cult that’s unprecedented in scale, and it may result in dead Maru getting heavy circulation on the intertubes.on 2011-10-05
  • gwern estimated 50% and said “Joshua: well, the cat is obviously going to die at some point – no cat has yet lived forever. At that point, it’s just a binary question – film or no film? (switch to 50% based on roxton’s odd videos.)on 2011-10-05
  • roxton said “JoshuaZ: Time isn’t a mandatory field? Assume it’s unbounded for the purposes of prediction.on 2011-10-05
  • Sandra Åhlén estimated 55% on 2011-10-06

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