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North Korea's President Kim Jong-il's goal is to stabilize it's position in the world before he announces his resignation and appoints his 26 year old son to the presidency.

Created by CRNewsReports© on 2009-06-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-19.

  • CRNewsReports© estimated 100% on 2009-06-17
  • CRNewsReports© on 2009-06-17
  • CRNewsReports© changed the deadline from “on 2009-06-01” on 2009-06-17
  • CRNewsReports© changed the deadline from “on 2010-08-01” on 2009-06-17
  • gwern estimated 70% and said “This is really vague. But it’s the best explanation of the Cheonan incident, so…” on 2010-07-29
  • gwern said “since he didn’t resign, I think this should be marked wrong” on 2011-12-19
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-19.