'I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba'

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.

• gwern estimated 0% on 2011-10-07
• gwern said “1% is a tad high, so round downwards. original: http://www.reddit.com/r/japan/comments/l1kpv/prediction/” on 2011-10-07
• gimpf estimated 0% on 2011-10-08
• mat33 estimated 0% and said “So, that’s how you hack the system ;) 2+2 is most certainly not equel to 5 :-)” on 2011-10-08
• Robert Kosten estimated 5% on 2011-10-09
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2011-10-10
• Anubhav estimated 0% on 2011-10-10
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-13.