“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.”

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08.

  • bobpage estimated 1% on 2011-10-07
  • bobpage said “from http://bbs.chinadaily.com.cn/viewthread.php?tid=709814on 2011-10-07
  • bobpage said “the poster’s conjecture: “The reason is that too many foreign men are marrying Chinese women and that there will be 10-20 million Chinese men who cannot find Chinese wives.”on 2011-10-07
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “yes, I’m sure they will happily sabotage their economy to deal with a minor leak of women… (not 1% because there is a serious political streak of xenophobia in China)on 2011-10-07
  • mat33 estimated 15% and said “I don’t really know what would be China in a few years. But this kind of folly looks just remotely plausible, as it’s consistent whith the China traditions and red&brown worldview.on 2011-10-08
  • Kaj_Sotala   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-08.
  • Kaj_Sotala   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-08.
  • Kaj_Sotala said “(Sorry about that, misunderstood what the buttons meant.)on 2011-10-08
  • Kaj_Sotala estimated 2% on 2011-10-08
  • Sniffnoy estimated 1% and said “I’m using a narrow notion of “special cases” here. I’d go down to 95% using a broader notion.on 2011-10-08
  • Robert Kosten estimated 15% on 2011-10-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “tags: [China][demographics][politics]on 2011-10-09
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 99% on 2011-10-10
  • Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
  • BrandonReinhart estimated 1% on 2011-10-12
  • bobpage said “Jayson_Virissimo, did you mean 99% against?on 2011-10-12
  • Serge estimated 12% and said “I don’t think soon 2011-10-16
  • JFE estimated 1% on 2011-11-01
  • thaprophet estimated 0% on 2011-11-04
  • faws estimated 1% on 2011-11-06
  • Artis estimated 25% on 2011-11-07
  • seifip estimated 3% on 2013-04-14
  • Tuxedage estimated 0% on 2013-04-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-02-21
  • themusicgod1 estimated 47% on 2016-10-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2016-10-09
  • pranomostro estimated 5% on 2019-01-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 2% on 2019-01-01
  • Baeboo estimated 2% on 2019-01-01
  • galen estimated 1% on 2019-12-29
  • Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 0% on 2019-12-29
  • Pablo Stafforini estimated 0% on 2019-12-31
  • Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2020-01-01.

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