“. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.” —Dan King

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-10-07
• gwern said “http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2011/09/22/u_s_report_projects_sharp_rise_in_college_degrees_widening_of_gender_gap funny I rather htink the system will look pretty much as it does now” on 2011-10-07
• mat33 estimated 25% and said “The virtual education triumf would probably come later. And even then, institutions like Oxford, Cambrige, Sorbonne may hang to tradition for ages.” on 2011-10-08
• Robert Kosten estimated 10% on 2011-10-09
• chemotaxis101 estimated 70% on 2011-10-09
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% and said “Universities have survived since the Middle Ages; they aren’t going anywhere.” on 2011-10-12
• Anubhav estimated 1% on 2011-10-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 2% and said “tags: [education][economics]” on 2011-10-12
• themusicgod1 estimated 9% on 2016-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 3% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 2% and said “Unclear resolution criteria.” on 2019-01-01
• JoshuaZ estimated 4% on 2019-01-01
• Baeboo estimated 5% on 2019-01-01
• Baeboo estimated 3% on 2019-01-01
• Bruno Parga   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-01-01.