Andrea Rossi's 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year.

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.

• Kaj_Sotala estimated 80% on 2011-10-08
• Kaj_Sotala estimated 98% and said “Damnit, hit enter before thinking through my prediction confidence. :P” on 2011-10-08
• gwern estimated 97% on 2011-10-08
• Sniffnoy estimated 99% on 2011-10-08
• Robert Kosten estimated 95% on 2011-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 99% on 2011-10-09
• saturn estimated 99% on 2011-12-11
• PseudonymousUser estimated 99% on 2011-12-12
• scav estimated 99% and said “Assuming succeed means succeed as a power plant generating >= 1MW by the process he claims it to use; not e.g. reacting hydrogen or nickel chemically.” on 2012-07-31
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_Catalyzer#Commercial_plans lists no shipped 1MW units. marking right.” on 2012-10-08
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-10-08.