By 2012-10-01, I will have written a book of fiction that has at least 50,000 words and has been read by at least 50 people.

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-10-01.

• Kaj_Sotala estimated 80% on 2011-10-08
• gwern estimated 75% and said “how would you judge readership?” on 2011-10-08
• Kaj_Sotala said “Guesstimating from number of reviews, comments, downloads, and asking people “did you read it?”. Not the best criteria, but hopefully the confirmed data should either fall clearly short of the goal or clearly exceed it.” on 2011-10-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 70% on 2011-10-09
• NathanMcKnight estimated 20% and said “Sorry, but it seems likely you’re underestimating the amount of work involved. ” on 2012-09-27
• gwern said “Nathan: 50k is not all that much. my random novel draft is like 25k already, with 270 visitors despite zero promotion. and 50k words is the target for NaNoWriMo for writing in a month, and thousands finish that. ” on 2012-09-27
• Kaj_Sotala   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-10-01.
• Kaj_Sotala said “Getting a writing-intensive job that left little energy for other writing, as well as problems with my writing group, made this one incorrect. I don’t think I underestimated the amount of work involved, though – just my available time.” on 2012-10-01
• NathanMcKnight said “Sorry!” on 2012-10-19
• NathanMcKnight said “…and, congratulations!” on 2012-10-19
• Kaj_Sotala said “No problem. :-)” on 2012-10-19