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I will be able to earn a reliable living off writing and possible start-ups that I'm involved in by the end of 2013.

Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2014-01-01.

  • Kaj_Sotala estimated 20% on 2011-10-08
  • gwern estimated 30% on 2011-10-08
  • PseudonymousUser estimated 8% on 2011-10-23
  • JoshuaZ estimated 25% on 2011-10-23
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said ““reliable” needs to be defined” on 2011-10-24
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% and said ““reliable” needs to be defined” on 2011-10-24
  • Kaj_Sotala said “Hmm, my plans changed and I stopped even trying to achieve this goal. Should that count as “wrong” or “withdrawn”?” on 2013-12-17
  • Kaj_Sotala   judged this prediction wrong on 2014-01-01.