Apple smartphones will have under 30% US market share at the end of 2012

Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.

• Emanuel Rylke estimated 90% on 2011-10-09
• Robert Kosten estimated 70% on 2011-10-09
• gwern estimated 65% and said “dangerous watermark – apple currently has ~27%; iphone 5 may be released in 2012, and is that worth 3% of the market? could be” on 2011-10-09
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2011-10-11
• RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-03-06
• ahartell estimated 60% on 2012-03-07
• andrevan estimated 95% on 2012-11-24
• Emanuel Rylke   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-12-31.
• RandomThinker said “@gwern much more than 3%. Apple ended 2012 with 53% smartphone share in the US all because of the iphone 5. http://www.businessinsider.com/apple-us-marketshare-2012-12 ” on 2013-02-24
• andrevan said “Actually it was 36% according to comScore. http://www.comscore.com/Insights/Press_Releases/2013/2/comScore_Reports_December_2012_U.S._Smartphone_Subscriber_Market_Share” on 2013-04-27
• andrevan said “The Kantar numbers were 12 week sales data ending November. http://www.kantarworldpanel.com/Global/News/Apple-achieves-its-highest-ever-Smartphone-share-in-US” on 2013-04-27
• RandomThinker said “lol numbers aren’t reliable at all. I find it hard to believe shifting a 3 mo average by a month changes the real numbers from 53 to 36%. Regardless, good thing either case it’s above 30%.” on 2013-04-27
• andrevan said “I only point it out because it was closer – the fundamental point, that Apple’s share was eroding, was there.” on 2013-05-29