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CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light.

Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.

  • anandjeyahar estimated 70% on 2011-10-09
  • Robert Kosten estimated 40% on 2011-10-09
  • gwern estimated 25% and said “found right within 3 months: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3431 1 year: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3432” on 2011-10-09
  • Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
  • Metus estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2011-10-10
  • JoshuaZ said “Conjunction fallacy seems to be an issue here. Supposes experiment correct, and new theory, and new details of theory all within specific time frame. ” on 2011-10-10
  • Daniel Mehkeri estimated 0% on 2011-10-10
  • Anubhav said “Given the first part (FTL confirmed), I’d place 100% confidence on the rest of it.” on 2011-10-11
  • JoshuaZ said “Anubhav, that’s a 100% chance that the new theory will involve different limit and that we’ll have functioning versions of such theories within 15 years? And given that naive tachyons don’t violate GR…? ” on 2011-10-12
  • Anubhav said “Seeing as the reported neutrino speed is just slightly above light speed, I was guessing that the new theory wouldn’t differ that much from relativity…. Or maybe I’m just being naive?” on 2011-10-12
  • fergus estimated 1% on 2011-10-22
  • Jach estimated 5% on 2011-10-22
  • Sniffnoy said “I’m not even clear on what the last part of this means.” on 2011-10-25
  • JoshuaZ said “Snffnoy, my interpretation is that some other velocity will act as a limiting velociting in the new theory. This is precisely the sort of thing that makes this seem extremely conjunction heavy. ” on 2011-10-25
  • JFE estimated 32% on 2011-11-01
  • annis   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-02.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-02.
  • JoshuaZ said “annis, why judging before the deadline? ” on 2011-11-02
  • Anubhav said “^ Because the interface is hardly intuitive. ” on 2011-11-03
  • Anubhav estimated 1% on 2011-11-03
  • thaprophet estimated 0% on 2011-11-04
  • Prozaic   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-09.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-09.
  • JoshuaZ said “Prozaic, there’s no way you can know if this is right yet or not. If you think it is very likely to be wrong then give an estimate. ” on 2011-11-09
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-08-31.
  • JoshuaZ said “I think we can safely judge this as wrong at this point. ” on 2013-08-31
  • mfb said “Certainly wrong, indeed.” on 2013-08-31