CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light.

Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.

  • anandjeyahar estimated 70% on 2011-10-09
  • Robert Kosten estimated 40% on 2011-10-09
  • gwern estimated 25% and said “found right within 3 months: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3431 1 year: http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3432on 2011-10-09
  • Anubhav estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
  • Metus estimated 5% on 2011-10-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2011-10-10
  • JoshuaZ said “Conjunction fallacy seems to be an issue here. Supposes experiment correct, and new theory, and new details of theory all within specific time frame. on 2011-10-10
  • Daniel Mehkeri estimated 0% on 2011-10-10
  • Anubhav said “Given the first part (FTL confirmed), I’d place 100% confidence on the rest of it.on 2011-10-11
  • JoshuaZ said “Anubhav, that’s a 100% chance that the new theory will involve different limit and that we’ll have functioning versions of such theories within 15 years? And given that naive tachyons don’t violate GR…? on 2011-10-12
  • Anubhav said “Seeing as the reported neutrino speed is just slightly above light speed, I was guessing that the new theory wouldn’t differ that much from relativity…. Or maybe I’m just being naive?on 2011-10-12
  • fergus estimated 1% on 2011-10-22
  • Jach estimated 5% on 2011-10-22
  • Sniffnoy said “I’m not even clear on what the last part of this means.on 2011-10-25
  • JoshuaZ said “Snffnoy, my interpretation is that some other velocity will act as a limiting velociting in the new theory. This is precisely the sort of thing that makes this seem extremely conjunction heavy. on 2011-10-25
  • JFE estimated 32% on 2011-11-01
  • annis   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-02.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-02.
  • JoshuaZ said “annis, why judging before the deadline? on 2011-11-02
  • Anubhav said “^ Because the interface is hardly intuitive. on 2011-11-03
  • Anubhav estimated 1% on 2011-11-03
  • thaprophet estimated 0% on 2011-11-04
  • Prozaic   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-09.
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-11-09.
  • JoshuaZ said “Prozaic, there’s no way you can know if this is right yet or not. If you think it is very likely to be wrong then give an estimate. on 2011-11-09
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-08-31.
  • JoshuaZ said “I think we can safely judge this as wrong at this point. on 2013-08-31
  • mfb said “Certainly wrong, indeed.on 2013-08-31

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