Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election.

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

  • chemotaxis101 estimated 65% on 2011-10-09
  • beo_shaffer estimated 45% on 2011-10-09
  • bobpage said “The popular vote, not electoral, right?on 2011-10-09
  • bobpage said “Also, what is “~15%”? Wouldn’t “at least 15%” be simpler?on 2011-10-09
  • chemotaxis101 changed the deadline from “on 2012-11-07” and changed their prediction from “Third-party candidates will take ~15% of the votes in the 2012 US presidential election.” on 2011-10-09
  • Sniffnoy estimated 33% on 2011-10-09
  • JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-10-09
  • gwern estimated 15% and said “for comparison ross perot got ~18%on 2011-10-09
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2011-10-10
  • Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-10-10
  • JRMayne   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-11.
  • JRMayne   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-11.
  • Isaac estimated 90% on 2011-10-17
  • Isaac estimated 30% on 2012-05-16
  • RandomThinker estimated 5% on 2012-05-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2012-05-17
  • kilobug estimated 15% on 2012-09-07
  • William-Quixote estimated 2% on 2012-09-09
  • Qiaochu estimated 0% and said “Seems extremely unlikely in light of the forecasted popular vote percentages on FiveThirtyEight (49.9% for Obama, 49.0% for Romney) and the fact that nobody’s talking about the third-party candidates. on 2012-10-14
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-10-14
  • Sarokrae estimated 0% on 2012-11-05
  • RandomThinker said “Err no.on 2012-11-07
  • RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-07.

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