Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election.

Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.

• chemotaxis101 estimated 65% on 2011-10-09
• beo_shaffer estimated 45% on 2011-10-09
• PseudonymousUser said “The popular vote, not electoral, right?” on 2011-10-09
• PseudonymousUser said “Also, what is “~15%”? Wouldn’t “at least 15%” be simpler?” on 2011-10-09
• chemotaxis101 changed the deadline from “on 2012-11-07” and changed their prediction from “Third-party candidates will take ~15% of the votes in the 2012 US presidential election.” on 2011-10-09
• Sniffnoy estimated 33% on 2011-10-09
• JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-10-09
• gwern estimated 15% and said “for comparison ross perot got ~18%” on 2011-10-09
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2011-10-10
• Robert Kosten estimated 60% on 2011-10-10
• JRMayne   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-11.
• JRMayne   judged this prediction unknown on 2011-10-11.
• Isaac estimated 90% on 2011-10-17
• Isaac estimated 30% on 2012-05-16
• RandomThinker estimated 5% on 2012-05-16
• JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2012-05-17
• kilobug estimated 15% on 2012-09-07
• William-Quixote estimated 2% on 2012-09-09
• Qiaochu estimated 0% and said “Seems extremely unlikely in light of the forecasted popular vote percentages on FiveThirtyEight (49.9% for Obama, 49.0% for Romney) and the fact that nobody’s talking about the third-party candidates. ” on 2012-10-14
• JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2012-10-14
• Sarokrae estimated 0% on 2012-11-05
• RandomThinker said “Err no.” on 2012-11-07
• RandomThinker   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-11-07.