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As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere.

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.

  • Daniel Mehkeri estimated 100% on 2011-10-10
  • Daniel Mehkeri changed the deadline from “on 2012-12-21” and changed their prediction from “As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere.” on 2011-10-10
  • Daniel Mehkeri said “(the edit above was just to put “not” in bold)” on 2011-10-10
  • Daniel Mehkeri said “For “mistaken” instead of “unreproducible”, see http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3432” on 2011-10-10
  • JoshuaZ estimated 95% on 2011-10-10
  • Sniffnoy estimated 98% on 2011-10-11
  • Anubhav estimated 92% on 2011-10-11
  • JoshuaZ said “I presume that this means post OPERA and doesn’t include the earlier tentative result by MINOS.” on 2011-10-11
  • Sniffnoy estimated 83% and said “Misread this…” on 2011-10-11
  • gwern estimated 70% and said “not really sure how ‘mistaken’ probability should be adjusted to get ‘not reproduced’… are neutrino detectors in that kind of setup common at all?” on 2011-10-11
  • Robert Kosten estimated 40% on 2011-10-11
  • JoshuaZ said “Gwern, MINOS (at Fermilab) is the only other system capable of measuring this sort of thing in close enough detail to reproduce it at this time. The Japanese have detectors that could(?) be set up to do this but it would take a lot of work. ” on 2011-10-11
  • Daniel Mehkeri said “I’m fairly sure how ‘unreproducible’ will be judged, but not sure about ‘mistaken’. What if by deadline it is not reproduced, but the cause of the anomolous measurement is still a mystery, or not agreed upon, or…” on 2011-10-14
  • Arenamontanus estimated 87% on 2011-10-18
  • Arets Paeglis estimated 90% on 2011-10-25
  • Metus estimated 90% on 2011-10-29
  • rebellionkid estimated 99% and said “We have a far stronger bound from supernova observations.” on 2011-10-29
  • JFE estimated 85% on 2011-11-01
  • annis estimated 99% and said “Minos at Fermi is going to try, Opera is doing the experiment again- the speed of light will prevail.” on 2011-11-02
  • thaprophet estimated 100% on 2011-11-04
  • JoshuaZ said “OPERA just reproduced this in an experiment that uses shorter neutrino bursts and handles a lot of the sources of error. Is this sufficient to mark this prediction wrong? ” on 2011-11-18
  • gwern said “link; http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/8hh/opera_confirms_neutrinos_travel_faster_than_light/ prediction does say ‘anyone’, and I felt surprised to read OPERA reproducing it… IMO, mark it wrong” on 2011-11-18
  • JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-18.
  • JoshuaZ said “Well, my 90-99 range just took a big hit…” on 2011-11-18
  • Anubhav said “Did anyone actually consider the possibility of OPERA reproducing it? I think we were expecting that if this prediction would be proved wrong, it’d be because someone else reproduced it. This points to some kind of cognitive bias on our part. ” on 2011-11-19
  • JoshuaZ said “Anubhav, after their work they had said they were going to do a short burst run to see what they got, but I expected it to take a lot longer than this. ” on 2011-11-19
  • Anubhav said “Not a 100% general bias then. Still, gwern says above that he was surprised by OPERA reproducing it, so I’m not the only one who overlooked this possibility. This doesn’t look like a purely idiosyncratic bias…” on 2011-11-19