In the Ontario (Canada) legislature, the Liberal minority will form the government, and as of 2012-12-21, they will still have the confidence of the House.

Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-27.

• Daniel Mehkeri estimated 85% on 2011-10-10
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 65% on 2011-10-11
• gwern estimated 65% on 2011-10-11
• gwern said “https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ontario_Liberal_Party_leadership_election,_2013 indicates the liberals are still forming the government; marking right” on 2012-12-27
• gwern   judged this prediction right on 2012-12-27.