The Prediction Book Wikipedia page will be tagged for deletion or deleted within 2 weeks.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.

• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2011-10-11
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 75% on 2011-10-11
• gwern estimated 55% and said “there can be pretty long delays before someone gets around to tagging it if a NewPage patroller doesn’t get it immediately when it’s in that queue” on 2011-10-11
• Robert Kosten estimated 50% on 2011-10-11
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction right on 2011-10-12.