Average global temperature will be higher for 2011 than 2010.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 5% on 2011-10-11
• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-10-11
• Sandra Åhlén estimated 10% on 2011-10-13
• Arenamontanus estimated 60% on 2011-10-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 12% on 2011-10-18
• velocirhymer estimated 80% on 2011-10-19
• chemotaxis101 estimated 20% on 2011-11-05
• NathanMcKnight estimated 60% on 2011-11-13
• gwern said “2010 was a record, http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=706212 says 0.3% chance of breaking the record, inference this was wrong; marking wrong” on 2012-01-14
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-14.