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Created by gwern on 2011-10-11; known on 2012-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-12.

• gwern estimated 85% on 2011-10-11
• Robert Kosten estimated 80% on 2011-10-11
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 90% on 2011-10-12
• JoshuaZ estimated 80% on 2011-10-12
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction right on 2011-10-12.