PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

My Modalert will arrive tomorrow.

Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.

  • gwern estimated 33% on 2011-10-12
  • gwern said “today isn’t looking good either; might as well judge it already” on 2011-10-13
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-13.