PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

My Modalert will arrive day after tomorrow.

Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-14.

  • gwern estimated 33% on 2011-10-12
  • gwern said “my eagerness definitely got the better of me with these predictions” on 2011-10-14
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-14.