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Google Knol will be shutdown in 2014

Created by gwern on 2011-10-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.

  • gwern estimated 20% on 2011-10-13
  • JoshuaZ said “Is this meant to be by 2014 or exactly in 2014? (Incidentally, it seems to me that when doing sets of predictions it is easier to think about them if one does by whatever date but that may just be me.) on 2011-10-13
  • gwern said “Each of this is ‘in’. Obviously, because otherwise they would monotonically increase… I find it easier to write them like this, as I am graphing the probability distribution over units of years; cumulative would be more work…on 2011-10-13
  • gwern said “shut down in 2012: 2011-11-22
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-22.

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