By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130.
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
- JoshuaZ estimated 55% on 2011-10-15
- JoshuaZ estimated 35% and said “Look at the statistics some more. Way too confident. ” on 2011-10-15
- gwern estimated 3% and said “oldage longevity has grown very slowly: http://lesswrong.com/lw/7jh/living_forever_is_hard_part_2_adult_longevity/ such a person would already be like 115 or something” on 2011-10-17
- fergus estimated 1% on 2011-10-22
- JoshuaZ estimated 12% and said “Overestimated by a lot. ” on 2011-10-22
- JoshuaZ estimated 3% and said “Updating on confidence issues. ” on 2011-11-16
- Grognor estimated 5% and said “even so, there only needs to be one.” on 2011-12-06
- gwern estimated 0% and said “context: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldest_people oldest living person is now 115 years old. in 14 more years or 2025, they will be 115+14 = 129, not 130. this prediction is 100% ‘Besse Cooper will live another 14 years’!” on 2011-12-07
- Grognor estimated 0% and said “can’t argue with that” on 2011-12-07
- Jayson Virissimo said “I don’t assign a 100% probability to Besse Cooper being the oldest person in the world. There are plenty of places in China and India that have some really old people that are currently off-the-grid.” on 2011-12-07
- muflax estimated 0% on 2011-12-07
- gwern said “Jayson: none of whom will be verifiable in the slightest bit.” on 2011-12-07
- Jayson Virissimo said “Good point.” on 2011-12-07
- JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Good points. ” on 2011-12-07
- saturn estimated 0% on 2011-12-11
- Malgidus judged this prediction wrong on 2013-03-27.
- Malgidus said “Run these but with time for people to age with increasing tech.” on 2013-03-27
- JoshuaZ said “Er, the deadline for this hasn’t happened yet. ” on 2013-03-28
- JoshuaZ judged this prediction unknown on 2013-03-28.
- Raahul_Kumar estimated 0% and said “None of the people on this list will be 130 by 2025. Mathematically impossible.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldest_people” on 2016-02-16
- Raahul_Kumar said “The 2 oldest on this list will only be 125 in 9 years(116 now). Josh, can you judge this prediction today? Maths indicates it can’t happen.https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldest_people#Ten_oldest_people_living” on 2016-03-05
- JoshuaZ said “I’m ok judging this one wrong if no one else objects. ” on 2016-03-05
- Raahul_Kumar said “Actually, does anyone have proof of anyone alive today who is 121 years old? if they do, the prediction is still on, if not, and Wiki says there is no one in that age range, I say call it.” on 2016-03-06
- themusicgod1 estimated 0% on 2016-03-11
- kuudes said “Testing PB for a bug” on 2016-12-21
- kuudes judged this prediction wrong on 2016-12-21.
- kuudes judged this prediction unknown on 2016-12-21.
- kuudes judged this prediction wrong on 2016-12-21.
- kuudes judged this prediction unknown on 2016-12-21.
- pranomostro estimated 0% on 2019-01-01
- n99 estimated 0% on 2022-10-28
- Prownie estimated 8% and said “although there may most certainly be progresses in ageing research – i do not think that there will be someone who will live to 130.i would put a higher chance that 50 year old humans will be in clinical trials to reverse eye ageing.” on 2023-08-24