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By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2035-01-01

  • JoshuaZ estimated 15% on 2011-10-15
  • gwern estimated 7% on 2011-10-17
  • JoshuaZ estimated 8% and said “Adjusting down after having looked at numbers more. ” on 2011-10-22
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% and said “Updating for consistency with http://predictionbook.com/predictions/3847” on 2011-11-16
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2011-12-07
  • pranomostro estimated 0% and said “Currently 123, not possible unless major revelation.” on 2019-01-01
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% on 2019-01-01