By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2034-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 61% on 2011-10-15
• gwern estimated 20% and said “my predictions may not be 100% consistent on this matter… Joshuaz registered quite a few” on 2011-10-17
• JoshuaZ said “Your predictions look consistent to a rough approximation. In general you seem to be much more pessimistic about these sorts of things than I am. ” on 2011-10-17
• Arenamontanus estimated 75% on 2011-10-18
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “Reducing confidence in life extension occurring soon. ” on 2011-12-07
• gwern said “currently 102 years old” on 2011-12-07
• Malgidus estimated 35% and said “This really bets on whether the first longevity treatments are administered to the very old and they want it (I assume they do as they would be 120), but it seems like this might be a bit too late.” on 2013-03-27
• JoshuaZ estimated 38% and said “Reduced confidence again. ” on 2013-03-28
• simplicio estimated 50% on 2013-03-28
• pranomostro estimated 15% on 2019-01-01
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2019-01-01