Fobos-Grunt will launch successfully by December 25, 2011.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2011-12-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-03.

• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2011-10-15
• gwern estimated 70% on 2011-10-17
• chemotaxis101 estimated 75% on 2011-11-05
• JoshuaZ said “Launch was successful. http://www.universetoday.com/90781/russias-bold-sample-return-mission-to-mars-and-phobos-blasts-off/” on 2011-11-08
• JoshuaZ said “But not yet out of parking orbit. ” on 2011-11-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 98% on 2011-11-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% and said “Ooh. Now in trouble. Way overestimated that- http://www.universetoday.com/90803/trouble-for-the-phobos-grunt-mission/” on 2011-11-09
• gwern estimated 40% on 2011-11-09
• JoshuaZ said “They’ve given up on trying to recontact the probe. Any objections if I mark this wrong? ” on 2011-12-03
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-03.