Fobos-Grunt will successfully launch and return to Earth by March 1, 2020

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-03.

• JoshuaZ estimated 65% on 2011-10-15
• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-10-17
• Metus estimated 50% on 2011-10-17
• JoshuaZ estimated 72% and said “Updating based on successful launch for initial bit. (Will update to around 75% when leaves parking orbit successfully). http://www.universetoday.com/90781/russias-bold-sample-return-mission-to-mars-and-phobos-blasts-off/” on 2011-11-08
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% and said “Running into problems: http://www.universetoday.com/90803/trouble-for-the-phobos-grunt-mission/” on 2011-11-09
• gwern estimated 25% and said “https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2011/11/09/world/europe/AP-EU-Russia-Mars-Moon-Mission.html?hp&pagewanted=all” on 2011-11-09
• JoshuaZ said “They’ve given up on trying to recontact the probe. Any objections if I mark this wrong? ” on 2011-12-03
• gwern said “I’d say mark it wrong” on 2011-12-03
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-03.