Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01

  • JoshuaZ estimated 58% on 2011-10-17
  • gwern estimated 10% and said “‘chemically similar’ is the key phrase here…on 2011-10-17
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% and said “What is an “accepted” anti-aging treatment? Arguably, some already “accept” it as such.on 2011-10-17
  • Isaac estimated 40% and said “If we’re talking FDA approval, then no way. Also, define “anti-aging”?on 2011-10-17
  • JoshuaZ said “I wasn’t thinking FDA approval necessarily but that would certainly be sufficient. I’d settle for approval in any developed country that has similar restrictions on medicine. on 2011-10-17
  • Arenamontanus estimated 50% on 2011-10-18
  • Arets Paeglis estimated 50% and said “If not for the “chemically similar” part, I’d assign a higher P.on 2011-10-25
  • JoshuaZ said “issac, I’m confused at how you can estimate that there’s a 40% chance for this when you’ve also estimated that there’s a very high chance that the world will be destroyed in 2012? on 2011-11-03
  • JoshuaZ estimated 20% and said “Updating. Have looked more at recent literature and doesn’t look very promising. on 2011-12-01
  • Anubhav estimated 5% and said “Yay vagueness! </sarc> This reliance on vague concepts will probably get us into some sort of trouble at some unspecified point in the future… on 2011-12-02
  • pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-12-20
  • pranomostro estimated 10% on 2018-12-20
  • Baeboo estimated 15% on 2018-12-21
  • tamaybesiroglu estimated 0% and said “Accepted by whom?on 2019-04-22
  • tamaybesiroglu estimated 50% on 2019-04-22

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