Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01

• JoshuaZ estimated 58% on 2011-10-17
• gwern estimated 10% and said “‘chemically similar’ is the key phrase here…” on 2011-10-17
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% and said “What is an “accepted” anti-aging treatment? Arguably, some already “accept” it as such.” on 2011-10-17
• Isaac estimated 40% and said “If we’re talking FDA approval, then no way. Also, define “anti-aging”?” on 2011-10-17
• JoshuaZ said “I wasn’t thinking FDA approval necessarily but that would certainly be sufficient. I’d settle for approval in any developed country that has similar restrictions on medicine. ” on 2011-10-17
• Arenamontanus estimated 50% on 2011-10-18
• Arets Paeglis estimated 50% and said “If not for the “chemically similar” part, I’d assign a higher P.” on 2011-10-25
• JoshuaZ said “issac, I’m confused at how you can estimate that there’s a 40% chance for this when you’ve also estimated that there’s a very high chance that the world will be destroyed in 2012? ” on 2011-11-03
• JoshuaZ estimated 20% and said “Updating. Have looked more at recent literature and doesn’t look very promising. ” on 2011-12-01
• Anubhav estimated 5% and said “Yay vagueness! </sarc> This reliance on vague concepts will probably get us into some sort of trouble at some unspecified point in the future… ” on 2011-12-02
• pranomostro estimated 20% on 2018-12-20
• pranomostro estimated 10% on 2018-12-20
• Baeboo estimated 15% on 2018-12-21
• tamaybesiroglu estimated 0% and said “Accepted by whom?” on 2019-04-22
• tamaybesiroglu estimated 50% on 2019-04-22