“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 15% on 2011-10-19
• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-10-19
• Jach estimated 5% on 2011-10-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-10-26
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=750068” on 2011-10-26
• PseudonymousUser estimated 6% on 2011-10-26
• Tiresias estimated 5% on 2011-12-20
• spqr0a1 estimated 6% on 2012-01-17
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 1% on 2012-01-25
• iconreforged estimated 5% on 2012-01-27
• iconreforged estimated 3% on 2012-01-27
• chemotaxis101 estimated 5% on 2012-01-28
• gwern said “still there last I heard, intrade expired at zero. marking wrong.” on 2012-02-06
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-02-06.