At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other.

Created by bobpage on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01

  • bobpage estimated 28% on 2011-10-19
  • bobpage said “This could be fulfilled by at least 1) emulated humans living in a data center 2) a lot of people moving 3) population growth in some area 4) a massive congregation 5) AI spawning billions of realistic humans 6) a lot of escaped off-Earth humanson 2011-10-19
  • bobpage said ““within 3000 km of each other” is measured by a 3000 km circumference perfect sphere.on 2011-10-19
  • gwern said “see also 2011-10-19
  • bobpage said “I picked 3000 km because in ideal cases this gets you a 20ms round trip time from one end to the other, which should be tolerable in an em-city.on 2011-10-19
  • gwern estimated 60% and said “might be tricky to define ‘physically within’ for ems.on 2011-10-19
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2011-10-20
  • TrE estimated 55% and said “My estimated value should probably be higher since the prediction should be more likely true given that I survive to that point. Is that a valid line of reasoning?on 2011-10-20
  • bobpage said “TrE: If there were actual wagering on PredictionBook, whether or not you take into account your survival would depend on the beneficiary of a correct wager. But since PB has no wagering, this depends on whether or not you care about your…on 2011-10-21
  • bobpage said “…predictions looking silly in the event of your death. I personally optimize for not looking silly, even if I die. It would be a bit amusing to see everyone have 100% “I will live forever” predictions on PB.on 2011-10-21
  • fergus estimated 80% on 2011-10-21
  • halfwit estimated 40% on 2013-06-09
  • themusicgod1 estimated 40% and said “great claimon 2016-10-09
  • pranomostro estimated 51% on 2018-12-20

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