At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other.
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01
- PseudonymousUser estimated 28% on 2011-10-19
- PseudonymousUser said “This could be fulfilled by at least 1) emulated humans living in a data center 2) a lot of people moving 3) population growth in some area 4) a massive congregation 5) AI spawning billions of realistic humans 6) a lot of escaped off-Earth humans” on 2011-10-19
- PseudonymousUser said ““within 3000 km of each other” is measured by a 3000 km circumference perfect sphere.” on 2011-10-19
- gwern said “see also http://www.overcomingbias.com/2011/10/the-future-of-cities.html” on 2011-10-19
- PseudonymousUser said “I picked 3000 km because in ideal cases this gets you a 20ms round trip time from one end to the other, which should be tolerable in an em-city.” on 2011-10-19
- gwern estimated 60% and said “might be tricky to define ‘physically within’ for ems.” on 2011-10-19
- Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2011-10-20
- TrE estimated 55% and said “My estimated value should probably be higher since the prediction should be more likely true given that I survive to that point. Is that a valid line of reasoning?” on 2011-10-20
- PseudonymousUser said “TrE: If there were actual wagering on PredictionBook, whether or not you take into account your survival would depend on the beneficiary of a correct wager. But since PB has no wagering, this depends on whether or not you care about your…” on 2011-10-21
- PseudonymousUser said “…predictions looking silly in the event of your death. I personally optimize for not looking silly, even if I die. It would be a bit amusing to see everyone have 100% “I will live forever” predictions on PB.” on 2011-10-21
- fergus estimated 80% on 2011-10-21
- halfwit estimated 40% on 2013-06-09
- themusicgod1 estimated 40% and said “great claim” on 2016-10-09
- pranomostro estimated 51% on 2018-12-20