I will obtain at least one Java certification before the end of June, 30th, 2012.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 50% on 2011-10-20
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% and said “trying to correct for underconfidence bias” on 2011-10-20
• gwern estimated 50% and said “I think I would err on the lower end here – planning bias is more obvious (Oh, I’ll have plenty of time and everything will go right so there aren’t any delays in the next 8 months or whatever)” on 2011-10-21
• Jayson Virissimo said “WTF was I thinking? I was drawing an inference from way too small of a sample size. Now that I have more data to go on, it turns out I’m only underconfident at and above above 70% and overconfident below. Stupid me.” on 2012-02-05
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 40% on 2012-05-23
• Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-07-03.