I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012.

Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2012-05-26.

• Arkanj3l estimated 67% on 2011-10-20
• PseudonymousUser estimated 5% on 2011-10-20
• JoshuaZ estimated 45% on 2011-10-20
• gwern estimated 60% and said “Arkanj3l seems fairly committed already, and publicly so (vide his LW post)” on 2011-10-21
• Konkvistador estimated 70% and said “May be overestimating this due to my own experiences. ” on 2011-10-21
• gwern estimated 50% and said “been reminded I was not cynical enough in the past” on 2011-10-22
• fergus estimated 50% on 2011-10-22
• Metus estimated 40% on 2011-10-22
• Jach estimated 45% on 2011-10-23
• muflax estimated 40% on 2011-10-26
• stephenh estimated 40% on 2011-11-10
• baslisks estimated 30% and said “it is hard.” on 2012-01-20
• Arkanj3l   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-05-26.