Last.fm will become intertwined with Facebook, and take the spotlight away from Spotify.

Created by JMArchitect on 2011-10-21; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-25.

• JMArchitect estimated 30% on 2011-10-21
• JMArchitect changed the deadline from “on 2011-10-21” on 2011-10-21
• gwern estimated 20% and said “how would one judge this? and background: http://gizmodo.com/5844461/facebook-musics-biggest-loser-lastfm” on 2011-10-21
• djmattyg007 estimated 12% on 2012-08-01
• chemotaxis101 estimated 0% on 2012-10-13
• gwern said “Spotify is still big, I don’t see anyone arguing the contrary, facebook has its own scrobbling stuff, WP article for last.fm does not mention facebook… marking wrong” on 2012-10-25
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-10-25.