Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India.

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01

• gwern estimated 50% on 2011-10-22
• Robert Kosten estimated 5% on 2011-10-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 53% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 35% on 2018-12-20