Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula.

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01

• gwern estimated 25% on 2011-10-22
• Robert Kosten estimated 10% on 2011-10-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 13% on 2016-10-09
• pranomostro estimated 12% and said “The first? Any?” on 2018-12-20