Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan.

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01

  • gwern estimated 10% on 2011-10-22
  • gwern said “nuclear weapons means fission or fusion weapons (eg. including neutron bombs, excluding ‘dirty bombs’; EMP use may be unclear). in case of multiple detonations, interpreted as ‘at least one of…within X’on 2011-10-22
  • JoshuaZ said “How are we to judge conditionals if they don’t happen? on 2011-10-22
  • JoshuaZ said “That is, if the conditions don’t occur do we just judge them as right? on 2011-10-22
  • gwern said “that’s what I always thought. they can’t be the same thing as just probability times the subdivision of interest – what if I think nukes are 1% and Japan is 10% of that? how do I enter 0.1%?on 2011-10-22
  • JoshuaZ said “Hmm, this suggests a possible need for new software so we can easily make conditional predictions that don’t count and don’t need to be judged if the condition doesn’t occur. on 2011-10-23
  • gwern said “premature optimization; worse is better.on 2011-10-23
  • Robert Kosten estimated 1% on 2011-10-25
  • themusicgod1 estimated 15% on 2016-09-30
  • pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-12-20

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