Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan.

Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01

• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-10-22
• gwern said “nuclear weapons means fission or fusion weapons (eg. including neutron bombs, excluding ‘dirty bombs’; EMP use may be unclear). in case of multiple detonations, interpreted as ‘at least one of…within X’” on 2011-10-22
• JoshuaZ said “How are we to judge conditionals if they don’t happen? ” on 2011-10-22
• JoshuaZ said “That is, if the conditions don’t occur do we just judge them as right? ” on 2011-10-22
• gwern said “that’s what I always thought. they can’t be the same thing as just probability times the subdivision of interest – what if I think nukes are 1% and Japan is 10% of that? how do I enter 0.1%?” on 2011-10-22
• JoshuaZ said “Hmm, this suggests a possible need for new software so we can easily make conditional predictions that don’t count and don’t need to be judged if the condition doesn’t occur. ” on 2011-10-23
• gwern said “premature optimization; worse is better.” on 2011-10-23
• Robert Kosten estimated 1% on 2011-10-25
• themusicgod1 estimated 15% on 2016-09-30
• pranomostro estimated 5% on 2018-12-20