or its successor will cease to be updated

Created by gwern on 2011-10-23; known on 2021-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-10-23.

  • gwern estimated 75% on 2011-10-23
  • gwern said “began ~2006; however, author reads as a bit suicidal which adds a few percent (can’t update if you’re dead)on 2011-10-23
  • themusicgod1 estimated 53% and said “made it roughly halfway, but most blogs cease to be updated.on 2016-10-09
  • pranomostro estimated 40% and said “Still there.on 2018-12-20
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2021-10-23.
  • gwern said “Still there, although the updates are increasingly cursory and he has a software engineering job which sounds unpleasant so not surprised if it is abandoned in a few more years.on 2021-10-23

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