Before 2012, the United States will lose its triple-A credit rating from Moody's or Fitch (or both)

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.

• PseudonymousUser estimated 25% on 2011-10-23
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/10/23/us-usa-rating-merrill-idUSTRE79M2J120111023” on 2011-10-23
• gwern estimated 35% on 2011-10-23
• JoshuaZ estimated 30% on 2011-10-23
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 25% on 2011-10-24
• Robert Kosten estimated 10% on 2011-10-25
• chemotaxis101 estimated 25% on 2011-11-05
• PseudonymousUser said “http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2011-11-28/fitch-usa-credit-rating/51451590/1” on 2012-01-01
• PseudonymousUser   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-01-01.