Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2016.

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.

• from3004 estimated 85% on 2014-10-19
• themusicgod1 said “no record of this in the media?” on 2016-12-31
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2017-01-01.