By October 24, 2012 brazil84 will update his estimate that Amanda Knox was guilty to below 50% and declare that he has so updated on Less Wrong.

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-25; known on 2012-10-24; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-24.

• JoshuaZ estimated 8% on 2011-10-25
• JoshuaZ said “See http://lesswrong.com/lw/84j/amanda_knox_post_mortem/535p for context tags [personal][Amanda Knox][Less Wrong]” on 2011-10-25
• gwern estimated 10% and said “maybe he will get tired of arguing” on 2011-10-25
• Jayson Virissimo estimated 20% on 2011-10-25
• gwern estimated 50% and said “reading over his comments, no longer sure” on 2011-10-25
• JoshuaZ   judged this prediction wrong on 2012-10-24.