“Focus Fusion process to generate net power before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” -intrade

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Serge on 2015-03-30.

• Jayson Virissimo estimated 18% on 2011-10-26
• JoshuaZ estimated 10% on 2011-10-26
• gwern estimated 10% on 2011-10-27
• JoshuaZ said “Lack of announcements strongly suggest this did not occur. Any objections to me marking this false? ” on 2015-03-19
• Serge   judged this prediction wrong on 2015-03-30.