LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success and will have solid long-term data to back it up.

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.

• muflax estimated 20% on 2011-10-26
• muflax said “long-term meaning >=3 months, >=6 months preferably; solid meaning better than what a Christian revival group would produce” on 2011-10-26
• gwern estimated 50% and said “dunno what you consider solid; lukeprog thinks the data is decent but needs to be crunched” on 2011-10-27
• gwern said “still haven’t seen anything; marking wrong” on 2013-07-01
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-07-01.