Owen will post an article about Direct Instruction on LW this year.

Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.

• muflax estimated 30% on 2011-10-26
• muflax said “would go with <=10% (I assume he is bipolar-ish from private conversation), but I plan on talking with him about DI soon, so he might be prompted to post; reference: http://lesswrong.com/lw/7d1/scientifically_optimizing_education_hard_problem/” on 2011-10-26
• beo_shaffer estimated 30% on 2011-10-27
• gwern estimated 35% and said “posting can be pretty random – people post when inspiration strikes, which is hard to predict. 3 calendar months left.” on 2011-10-27
• muflax   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.