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Luke Muehlhauser will cease regularly using modafinil more than 3 times a week or will report tolerance

Created by gwern on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.

  • gwern estimated 65% on 2011-10-28
  • gwern said “he’s been at it a month using it every other day: I’m not sure when tolerance will kick in, so 1 year. obviously this will be judged on what he says when asked in the futureon 2011-10-28
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 60% and said “most likely there is an important detail lukeprog is leaving out of that post…just doesn’t seem plausibleon 2011-10-28
  • Gedusa estimated 90% and said “What do we mean by “cease”? If he sleeps normally for a week, does this count as true?on 2011-11-02
  • gwern said “Gedusa, I think we’ll give him a little leeway – if he doesn’t use because supply was temporarily interrupted for a month but plans to go back to the same schedule, I think morally the prediction is still wrongon 2011-11-02
  • papermachine estimated 80% and said “Something else is going on here. Just modafinil doesn’t explain this.on 2012-03-04
  • lukeprog said “I stopped using modafinil every week, months ago.on 2012-09-24
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Marking correct per lukeprog’s comment.on 2012-09-24
  • Jayson Virissimo   judged this prediction right on 2012-09-24.
  • gwern changed the deadline from “on 2012-10-28” and changed their prediction from “lukeprog will cease regularly using modafinil more than 3 times a week or will report tolerance” on 2013-10-04

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