Five people will join this prediction until friday.

Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-05.

• Metus estimated 70% on 2011-10-28
• TheScholar estimated 20% and said “It seems I’m the first to join?” on 2011-10-31
• antsan estimated 30% on 2011-11-01
• gwern said “no matter how you count, less than 5 people joined. marking wrong.” on 2011-11-05
• gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2011-11-05.